“I’m deeply skeptical that Putin has some health problems likely to lead to his imminent death or incapacitation,” Professor Mark Galeotti, director of Mayak Intelligence, a consultancy firm based in London concentrating on Russia, told Newsweek in February. “There is a great deal of rumor, propaganda and wishful thinking in play.”
The most compelling evidence of illness came in December when Putin was forced to scrap his New Year’s Eve plan to play ice hockey in Red Square. However, the failure of the Russian military in Ukraine likely had as much to do with that decision as any that were related to his health.
Though it is likely true that were Putin to die suddenly, the war in Ukraine could possibly end – but that’s hardly a guarantee. Others in the Kremlin continue to support the effort.
[It’s an interesting question. The sudden unhappiness of Yevgeniy Prigozhin suggests that only Putin’s standing motivates Russia to continue its attempt to conquer Ukraine. If Putin suddenly exited the stage, that would provide a pretext for both the Kremlin and some of the more rational nationalists to escape the catastrophe, if they chose. Any attempt to continue it would make them responsible for all the ills that followed, while a quick end would allow the current power structure at least an opportunity to put all the blame on Putin posthumously. If I were Putin, I’d stay away from windows and hire more food testers. — Ed]
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