By May 2023, it seems like the Trump Show could possibly have some more scenes—and maybe even acts—left. To some extent, it’s to be expected that Trump would bounce back from his December 2022 lows. On-going legal investigations were bound to keep him in the spotlight, and fear of Trumpian retaliation remains a powerful force among elected Republicans.

Thus, a 2024 DeSantis presidential run might instead be an insurgency campaign, in which a political change agent charges against a dominant frontrunner. Ronald Reagan in 1976, Barack Obama in 2008, and both Trump and Bernie Sanders in 2016 might be examples of insurgency campaigns. Trump was in many respects the frontrunner throughout most of the 2016 primary cycle after he declared, but he was also running against the consensus of other Republican electeds and the GOP’s party machinery, so that counts as an insurgency effort.

In thinking through the dynamics of the 2024 primary cycle (and this goes far beyond DeSantis), we could learn something by looking at the trajectory of past insurgency candidates, a possible insurgency blueprint, and the lessons of 2008 for today.