The good news is that, with 27 percent of likely Republican primary voters “not considering Trump” and almost 50 percent more being at least open to the prospect of an alternative nominee, the non-Trump candidates in the race have a shot. But the bad news is that those non-Trump candidates must somehow win the nomination without campaigning against Trump, about whom the Republican primary electorate will not hear one bad word.

It’s not quite the case that potential Republican primary voters cannot stand criticism of Trump (although the poll suggests as much: Only 7 percent of likely GOP primary voters would “prefer” a 2024 presidential nominee who criticizes the former president). Rather, the preference of 56 percent of this cohort is that, should another Republican win the nomination, that person never speak of Donald Trump again. Only 37 percent of GOP primary voters demand slavish loyalty to Trump from his successor; most just want to avoid the subject altogether. …

This poll conveys the impression that many, perhaps even most, Republican voters would not be displeased if Trump disappeared from the political scene as if by magic. But confront them with a binary choice — either repudiate the choices they’ve made in the last four years or ratify them — and you’ll get a lot of doubling down.