It’s never easy to predict how these things will work out, but there is also a case to be made that DeSantis could benefit from a debate with the other candidates even without Trump. First, if Trump isn’t there and the polling doesn’t change dramatically by August, DeSantis would be in the center of the stage, looking like the front-runner in a TV event that could draw a lot of eyeballs. He would also have the chance to frame attacks against Trump unrebutted while hitting Trump for not being willing to stand in the ring with him. He could also use the practice, which Trump would miss. And if the moderators are hostile, it would be DeSantis, not Trump, with the chance for a viral moment fighting the press. Maybe none of it plays out that way, but if we get to the summer and Trump and DeSantis are still running one-two with everybody else in single digits, and Trump decides to skip the debates, I wouldn’t advise DeSantis to follow suit.
The 1980 race featured a lot of these kinds of strategic games.
[Read the rest for Dan’s background on 1980, but I think he’s correct here. The others will target DeSantis in the debates anyway as a way to keep from angering Trump’s base, just as happened in 2015 when all of the candidates went after each other. That largely means that DeSantis’ liabilities will be fixed but his opportunities scale up. — Ed]
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