But primary voters shift their allegiance easily. Trump naturally leads now, due to name recognition, party loyalty following his successful term as president, and anger over the Democrats’ partisan legal attacks. Given those factors, it is surprising that his lead isn’t greater.

Remember when Ed Muskie had the presidential nomination virtually sewn up? Or Howard Dean? Primary voters change allegiance easily among candidates of whom, in general, they approve. That is why primary polls are so volatile. This year, Republicans have a rare opportunity to run a new, young candidate who is not hated by 50% or more of general election voters, against a weak, senile, discredited incumbent. I think it is almost inconceivable that the Republican Party will blow the opportunity.