Indo-Pacific maritime security: What does the future look like?

Editor’s Note: Dr. James Holmes, our Naval Diplomat, delivered the following remarks at a panel on “Indo-Pacific: Maritime Security,” Navy League Sea Air Space Expo, National Harbor, MD, April 3, 2023.

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Question: On the nature of the Chinese gray-zone challenge to the freedom of the sea and the rule of international law in the South China Sea. How can we “win without fighting,” and how can we best focus our efforts to shift the dynamics at work here?

Answer: I want everyone to undertake an act of imagination this afternoon: imagine how the situation in the South China Sea looks through the eyes of a Philippine or Vietnamese fisherman, coastguardsman, or sailor. It looks grim; to succeed we need to make things look less grim. Our strategic goal should be to give Southeast Asian mariners heart in the face of Communist Chinese coercion. We should strive to give that fisherman the confidence to go out and make a living for himself and his family without undue fear of abuse at the hands of a domineering coastal state that’s asserting itself unlawfully—but effectively—in defiance of international law.

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