The 2024 primary is fundamentally unlike any of those races — or any the last century — because it features a defeated former president as a front-runner.

Does anyone not have an opinion about Trump, the person who’s dominated American politics for eight years? If 67% of GOP primary voters tell pollsters now they prefer Trump to Pence or Haley, is there a reason to think that a large portion of that cadre would change their minds if they got to know the former vice president or former U.N. ambassador better?