Perverse incentives and "green flight" from Los Angeles

Millionaire home sellers are slashing prices and sweetening deals this week in Los Angeles, eager to move their properties off the market before a new real estate tax aimed squarely at the rich goes into effect on April 1.

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In November, Los Angeles voters backed Measure ULA, a transfer tax on big-ticket property sales that the city says will generate a new revenue stream for affordable housing projects and homelessness prevention. Known colloquially as the “mansion tax,” Measure ULA will impose a 4 percent tax on property sales above $5 million, and a 5.5 percent tax on properties above the $10 million mark.

The tax must be paid by the seller.

[The rush to sell now means that these current homeowners will likely not buy their next home in Los Angeles. They will take their capital elsewhere, perhaps in California but perhaps not. In the meantime, the falling prices as sellers rush to beat the clock means that the expected revenue has already been almost halved. Thanks to the incentives for stasis after this, builders will likely stop adding to housing in LA, exacerbating an ongoing housing crisis, while fewer people opt to bring fresh capital into LA in the future. It’s yet another exercise in unintentional consequences of progressive policies. — Ed]

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