On March 13, Trump visited Iowa for the first time since his November campaign launch. His return to the Hawkeye State was marked by a distinctly different campaign style from his 2016 run. Foregoing his traditional mega-rallies, Trump instead worked the rope line in a series of retail campaign stops prior to a speech in Davenport. His campaign’s early emphasis on organization and staffing indicate the campaign recognizes the high stakes of Iowa. Though much could – and likely will – change over the next ten months, should Trump lose the caucus, his presumed frontrunner status would deteriorate and defections could mount quickly.

DeSantis, who recently embarked on his own tour of Iowa, opens with 75 percent of Iowa Republicans holding a favorable opinion and just 6 percent holding an unfavorable opinion, undoubtedly a strong place for a candidate who has yet to announce an official campaign. DeSantis’s net +69 favorability is significantly higher than former Vice President Mike Pence (+40) and former Governor Nikki Haley (+45). Unlike Trump and Pence, however, DeSantis remains unknown to 20 percent of Iowa Republicans. How these voters respond to DeSantis will be vital to track as his name ID rises in the coming months. If, as most anticipate, DeSantis waits until May or June to launch a campaign, he risks ceding a first impression to Trump — who has already launched a series of attacks on the governor.