"Stupid slow": Dallas Fed signals contraction for the tenth month in a row

The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, edged down from 0.2 to -2.8, a reading suggestive of a modest contraction in output.

Under the hood, the new orders index was negative for a ninth month in a row and moved down nine points to -13.2. The growth rate of orders index fell from -12.3 to -16.9. The capacity utilization index returned to negative territory after two positive readings, falling 10 points to -4.1, while the shipments index was largely unchanged at -5.0.

[This isn’t signaling a crash, as Tyler Durden notes, but it’s a signal that recession is on its way. Along with today’s durable goods report, it seems likely to start as a manufacturing contraction as investment costs for expansion keep skyrocketing as the Fed hikes interest rates. It will bleed over soon enough after that, however. — Ed]