Can Russia become a normal nation-state following the pattern of other European countries and former empires—and abandon half a millennium of imperial conquest and propaganda? Because the imperial mindset has been intertwined with the Russian sense of nationhood for so long, such a change is unlikely to come from within. Ironically, it is the Ukrainians, who, by handing the imperial center a decisive defeat, can trigger a reexamination of Russia’s national identity. Only in defeat will Russians have a chance to refocus their country’s priorities away from empire and toward a domestic agenda of economic, social, and democratic development. …

Today, there is little impetus for a Russian patriotic movement focused on domestic development. Even among what’s left of the opposition, there are few voices trying to convince Russians to build a future within the country’s recognized borders. Even the imprisoned opposition activist Alexey Navalny, while he has spoken out against the war, argues that Crimea belongs to Russia and is unapologetic for having used ethnic slurs against Russia’s national minorities.

[I’m skeptical as well, and not just because there seems to be so little support for that policy. Russia consists of a large land mass and a combination of ethnic communities, which makes imperialism perhaps the most cohesive force within the country. It’s why Putin keeps claiming that the thwarting of Russia’s imperial ambitions represents an existential threat to the Russian Federation, and to some extent he may be right. Even Yeltsin had to embrace that when the Chechens decided to leave the federation, as Karatnycky points out, which set the stage for Putin’s ascendance. I’m not sure that even a defeat in Ukraine will be enough to unlock a rational, post-imperial approach in Moscow. — Ed]