One of Russia’s leading nuclear-arms experts, Aleksei Arbatov, recently gave an interview in which he discussed the likelihood of Moscow’s using nuclear weapons in its war against Ukraine.

Arbatov is no flake. He’s the head of the authoritative Center for International Security at the Institute of the World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences. …

“What is really important is that the people who are authorized to make statements on these issues—the president, the foreign minister, and the defense minister—all say that Russia is not considering the possibility of using nuclear weapons. And our military doctrine also does not envisage the use of nuclear weapons in response to the transfer of Leopard or Abrams tanks to Ukraine. Of course, military doctrine is not holy scripture, and the authorities are free to follow it or not follow it. But, in any case, this document spells out only one reason for the use of nuclear weapons, except in response to a nuclear attack or an attack using other means of mass destruction. This reason could be aggression with the use of conventional weapons, which threatens the very existence of the Russian state. It is quite obvious that the transfer of even hundreds of Western tanks to Ukraine will not call into question the existence of our state.”

[I suspect that Vladimir Putin has finally figured out that we knew he was bluffing, and now that his bluff has been called, he’s adapting his political tactics. This never was a serious threat. — Ed]