Amended U.S. Department of Agriculture rules announced last month suggest the agency has high hopes for plans to crack down on fraud in the organic food sector.

“The amendments protect integrity in the organic supply chain and build consumer and industry trust in the USDA organic label by strengthening organic control systems, improving farm to market traceability, and providing robust enforcement of the USDA organic regulations,” the agency explained in a January 19 notice in the Federal Register. The new final rule, dubbed Strengthening Organic Enforcement, is set to take effect next month (with enforcement delayed until next year).

Some are hailing the USDA’s stance.

“The Organic Trade Association, which lobbied for rule, said it represents the biggest change to organic regulations since the creation of the USDA organic food program,” the Associated Press reports. “OTA officials said in a statement the regulation ‘will do much to deter and detect organic fraud and protect organic integrity throughout the supply chain.'”

Organic food is a big business in this country, and the organic label helps to fetch a premium price.

…So would greater USDA oversight of organic food solve those problems? Call me skeptical.

The amended rules have some producers and sellers concerned they will increase costs for them and consumers. That’ll mean higher prices, and higher prices likely mean more incentives to cheat.

A more glaring problem is this: the USDA has been aware for many years that its oversight of organic food has been a massive failure—but that knowledge hasn’t spurred the agency to act. For example, a 2010 report by the USDA Office of Inspector General found the agency’s “enforcement of federal laws governing organics is abysmal,” Food Safety News reported at the time. A subsequent USDA OIG report in 2017—this one focusing on organic-food imports—found (per Buzzfeed) that “consumers who make a point of buying organic food may be getting ripped off” due to lax USDA oversight and other problems.