Did BLS vastly overstate job additions?

This is the second major report to come out showing significant job growth discrepancies in the second quarter. Last month, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank released a report saying it thought the government overestimated job growth by more than one million. The Philadelphia Fed calculated 10,500 net new jobs added versus the 1,047,000 revised estimate by the BLS.

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At the time, BLS diminished the findings in an email to Straight Arrow News.

“Using a simple methodology and a series of assumptions, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank benchmarked to a less complete version of the [Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages] data than is available to BLS,” BLS economist Emma Sillman responded. “BLS does not believe that the monthly [Current Employment Statistics] data dramatically overestimated employment growth.”

But now, BLS’s own data may indicate otherwise, and several months later, data revisions cannot revise actions taken during that time period.

[This would be a major scandal within the financial markets, if proven accurate. Investors rely on BLS data for their decisions, and if those prove unreliable or worse, get ready for a massive reaction. — Ed]

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