To understand how this forthcoming non-celebratory 20th anniversary of continuous political loss manifested itself, let’s begin with notable 2004 state voting data and compare it to 2020 state results.

But first, the basic facts: Incumbent President George W. Bush defeated Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) in a demure, respectable campaign by today’s standards. Bush won the popular vote 50.7 to 48.3 percent and the Electoral College vote 286 to 251.

Subsequently, four states totaling 32 electoral votes that contributed to Bush topping 270 in 2004 have since become GOP Electoral College “dropouts.” Starting in 2008, every Democratic presidential ticket has won the following states (with their 2024 electoral votes in parentheses): Virginia (13), Colorado (10), Nevada (6) and New Mexico (5).

Where does the Republican Party go to replace those 34 electoral votes? Good question.

[Myra makes a good argument about Republicans’ shrinking footprint, but I’d argue with her main point about demographics. We have already seen demographic shifts in political affiliation, particularly among Hispanic voters in southern states. As Democrats retreat into their Academia silos, the opportunity for even more growth elsewhere remains potent. But Myra is right that it will take fresh faces and voices to make that kind of progress significant enough to get to a majority of a presidential popular vote.

Worth noting, too: the GOP won the House popular vote in 2022, although that was at least somewhat due to structural issues in such elections. — Ed]