First of all, there’s just the basic math. There are 34 Senate races slated for next year so far — 33 regular contests, plus a special election in Nebraska, where newly-appointed Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) will be back on the ballot to defend the unexpired term left behind by Ben Sasse (R), who resigned to become the president of the University of Florida.
Democrats are defending 23 of these seats, while Republicans are defending just 11. That Democratic tally includes the 3 states with independents who caucus with the Democrats: Sens. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, Angus King of Maine, and Bernie Sanders of Vermont.
Democrats are defending all 3 seats they hold in states that Donald Trump carried for president in 2020 — Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia. Additionally, they are defending 5 more in states that President Biden carried but by margins smaller than his national edge (roughly 4.5 points). Those are Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Of those, one is already an open seat — Michigan, where Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) is retiring at the completion of her fourth term in office — and another is effectively open because of Sinema’s decision to leave the Democratic Party. She still caucuses with Democrats, but it’s become clear that she will have credible opposition to both her left and right if she seeks a second term. Rep. Ruben Gallego (D, AZ-3) entered the race on Monday.
So it isn’t necessarily a stretch to say that Democrats are defending the top 8 Senate seats likeliest to flip.
[As Kondik later says, however, this is incumbent on Republicans recruiting better candidates for these races than they did in last year’s midterms. The GOP had a golden opportunity to control both chambers and blew it. It could happen again, depending not just on their Senate candidates but also who they nominate for the top of the ticket. — Ed]
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