With the one-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion approaching, the Kremlin is digging in for the long-haul, and Putin has been preparing the population for a long-term war. The president is focusing on reframing the message away from a short and tactical “military operation” to a war of survival — indeed, he used the word “war” for the first time in a statement on December 22. To that end, in December he ordered the Culture Ministry to prepare a series of documentaries on the operation in Ukraine and the fight against “neo-Nazism.”
But this pivot to propaganda indicates a growing recognition in the Kremlin that the aims of the military operation are not likely to be achieved. Nor is the much-touted mobilization really on the cards either. Last month, Putin announced that of the 300,000 mobilized in the previous wave, 150,000 had been sent to Ukraine. That means that 150,000 are still undergoing training. And even pro-Kremlin pundits are quick to point out the obvious: the government is struggling to prepare and, most importantly, arm them with modern kit. Its military structure doesn’t currently have the capacity to absorb more recruits, and sanctions are going to make it harder to arm the ones it has. …
The Kremlin doesn’t look anywhere close to being ready to negotiate with Ukraine, given their rejection of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s proposed peace plan. But the costs of the war are mounting for Russia, and as they continue to rise so the possibility of talks with the Kremlin should not be discounted.
[As I wrote earlier, the price of those talks will likely be the end of Prigozhin — or maybe that’s an incentive for Putin. — Ed]
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