Often dubbed the first reality TV president, Trump no longer seems able to command the one thing he prizes above all else — ratings. Reports from his nascent 2024 campaign suggest it is already a vanity car-crash. He looks a spent force.

The logic seems impeccable. The only problem is that it just isn’t true. People forget that Donald Trump’s life has been a long series of vanity car-crashes. He’s always been petulant and exhausting. Yet he pranged his way into the White House and, in doing so, created arguably the most powerful political movement of the twenty-first century. Trumpism with Trump is still the dominant force in Republican politics. And Trumpism with Trump isn’t going away — no matter how hard people wish it would.

The latest Morning Consult poll of potential Republican primary voters shows that Trump commands 48 percent support. DeSantis is a distant second on 31 percent and Mike Pence, the former vice president who is regarded as a Judas figure in Trumpworld because he refused to “STOP THE STEAL” in 2020/1, comes in a distant third on 8 percent.

Other polls have shown DeSantis gaining more ground on Trump and, yes, we have a long way to go until the first primaries of 2024. The overall picture is clear, however. Trump is the favorite to win the Republican nomination.