Conservatives' nightmare scenario: a moderate consensus Speaker

For about as long as Kevin McCarthy’s ascent to House speaker has been in doubt, he and his allies have invoked a nightmare scenario for the ultraconservative House Freedom Caucus: If they thwart him, a handful of Republicans could join with Democrats to pick a moderate GOP speaker.

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The play is obvious. They want the Freedom Caucus to fall in line for fear of this outcome, however plausible or implausible. And the man some have floated as the would-be speaker in this scenario, former congressman Fred Upton (R-Mich.), now says he’s interested.

That potential outcome still seems a long ways off. But even as the House was descending into chaos on Tuesday, another House — Pennsylvania’s — shocked political watchers by forming a very similar coalition to elect its new speaker.

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