Although the abortion issue was the main concern that, at the margin, drove Democratic voters to the polls, the specter of Trump also helped negate the complacency that normally undermines the party in power during midterms. There’s a reason why Democratic candidates kept harping on the alleged threat to “our democracy” posed by Trump’s “election denialism.” This pitch must have gone over well with focus groups.

In addition, there was the problem of the candidates Trump elevated. Even with Democratic voters riled up, Brian Kemp prevailed in Georgia. There’s no reason to doubt that a normal GOP Senate candidate would likewise have won in that state. But Herschel Walker, a Trump creation, fell short.

Trumpy Senate candidates also underperformed in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Arizona. (In Ohio, the Trumpy Senate candidate won, but ran miles behind the normal Republican candidate for governor.) Had the Republicans won just won of the three winnable states cited above plus Georgia, control of the Senate would have changed hands.

In sum, the abortion issue ended up largely cancelling the “enthusiasm gap” that seemed likely to create a “Red Wave.” But Trump also contributed to the cancelation of that gap.