For the Right, 2022 was a year to forget. In Canada, Australia and New Zealand, it is out of power. In the States, the Republicans hold just one element of national government, and only marginally; their main influence comes from a legacy grip on the Supreme Court. In Britain, the Tories are in office but look deflated, running down the clock until an election defeat. For conservatives on both sides of the Atlantic, then, there are just 12 months to put to bed any internal crises and find a convincing, popular platform before the major election campaigns of 2024 kick off.
Like the Tories, the GOP go into 2023 electorally bruised. Their embrace of populism has not proved popular enough to sustain victory, but instead left them sullied by association with men who largely co-opted them for vehicles of their own ambition. Neither party seems capable of sating their supporters’ desires on key issues, such as immigration, but have adopted rhetoric that scares off their more centrist supporters. Equally, they are finding their support in diminishing demographics — older, whiter, and less well-educated than the rest of the population.
[I’d dispute that last characterization, at least in the US. Republicans and conservatives are finally learning to engage other demos, especially Hispanics, but that’s a process that takes time and requires some trust. But read the rest of Oxley’s argument, which hits more than it misses. — Ed]
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