Ignore the "tripledemic" hype

Despite the hype, these three viral diseases are not surging simultaneously. RSV cases and hospitalization rates rose and peaked far earlier this year than normal but have been declining for the past month. Covid-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths had been down for months, only rising recently to relatively low levels. And the flu season—which typically runs from October to April, peaking in February—is, like RSV, happening much earlier than usual.

While this flu season currently appears severe, it may not be out of the ordinary. Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates of the flu burden so far show at least 15 million flu illnesses, 150,000 flu hospitalizations, and 9,300 flu deaths. To put that in context, in the ten full flu seasons between 2010–2011 and 2019–2020, flu illnesses ranged from 9 million to 41 million, flu hospitalizations ranged from 140,000 to 710,000, and flu deaths ranged from 12,000 to 52,000. Unless the season takes a severe turn, this year’s influenza metrics should fall within normal ranges. …

The bottom line is that every winter brings an uptick in respiratory illnesses. This year, Covid is part of that mix. But the current surge does not warrant the return of pandemic-era controls. Such measures are not only unnecessary but would also likely prove ineffective.