Feathers are flying and divisions are widening among Russia’s hawks as the degree to which the invasion of Ukraine was a mistake becomes more evident. It is a powerful reminder that the main threat to Vladimir Putin these days comes not from liberals — largely imprisoned or forced into exile — but from increasingly disgruntled nationalists.
Some of these nationalists opposed the war from the beginning, but most welcomed what they saw as a necessary counter to NATO expansion and Ukraine’s “betrayal” in turning away from Moscow. However, many of them became quickly appalled and angered by what they regarded, with good reason, as the amateurishness, incompetence and corruption which so grievously undermined the invasion.
The result has been a growing fraction of nationalist opinion that is actually coming to see opposing Putin as a patriotic duty. This particular strand of opinion is, it has to be said, still a small minority. But it has disproportionate impact because of how many are current and former members of the security forces, including the Federal Security Service, or FSB.
This helps explain why, unlike the liberals who were quickly silenced, these nationalists have continued to be allowed to express their views on social media and other channels. In part, it is out of a fear that trying to muzzle them would simply make them more dangerous. It is, in part, also because the agencies which would do the muzzling include many sympathetic with them.
[Success has a thousand fathers. A failure at this level requires a patricide. — Ed]
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