The phrase is meant to describe a scenario in which the country avoids a recession in 2023 despite high inflation, the war in Ukraine and a rapid surge in interest rates. Given that the Fed has triggered a recession in eight of the last nine rate-hike cycles, it would be remarkable to avoid one this time. But the term “soft” makes it sound as if no one is going to get hurt.

The reality is that a substantial number of Americans will experience pain even if the country doesn’t technically fall into a recession. A more appropriate term is probably a “forced landing” or an “emergency landing.” Or, we should ditch the landing gear entirely and call this best-case scenario something more like a “stall session.” …

Even if growth overall doesn’t turn negative, some industries will experience downturns and, probably, a bump in layoffs. It’s already starting to happen.

The housing market is in a recession. There’s been an enormous drop in sales — transactions are down more than 20 percent as mortgage rates have shot up from near 3 percent at the start of the year to 7 percent in October. Americans say it’s the worst time to buy a home in decades, many millennials fear they won’t be able to become homeowners, and home builders are dour.