Finally, what may be the most concrete evidence for a Warnock advantage is the composition of the early vote. Despite an abbreviated timeframe, the runoff has seen robust early turnout. As of Sunday night, close to 1.9 million Georgians had cast an early ballot, a number that is 47% of the total count that last month’s general election saw (this is mostly in-person early voting but that tally also includes some mail-in votes).

As we have mentioned before, Georgia lacks partisan registration. But given the voting patterns in the South, the racial breakdown of the electorate is often informative. A few states over, for example, early voting statistics in his 2019 runoff showed that Gov. John Bel Edwards (D-LA) was on track to secure reelection. With early in-person voting concluded in Georgia, the runoff electorate currently sits at 32% Black by composition. That number represents an increase not just from November’s pre-Election Day electorate (29%) but also from that of the 2020 general election (28%) and the January 2021 runoff (31%). Notice that last cycle, it was a positive sign for Democrats that the Black share inched up from the general election to the runoff — that pattern has again taken hold.

In November, with a somewhat less friendly pre-Election Day electorate, Warnock carried the early vote (in-person plus mail-in ballots) by a 54%-44% spread. Walker finished within a point of Warnock overall by carrying the Election Day vote by a slightly larger 56%-41% margin, although only 36% of the total votes were cast the day of.

As Republican pollster John Couvillon summed up in his analysis of the early vote, the Walker campaign has a “tall order” to fill tomorrow. We are inclined to agree with his conclusion.