A Victory for Ukraine would be Excellent for Asia – and Not Just Taiwan: There has been much talk about the lessons of the Ukraine War for Taiwan. But ramifications of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war reach even wider for East Asia.

A Ukrainian victory, although operationally irrelevant there, would be grand and strategically relevant for many regional issues. …

Putin’s expectation seemed to be that he could win the war in a few days, perhaps a week. His blitzkrieg would win, because Ukraine was barely a country; it would quickly fold under pressure. Its people wanted to rejoin the Russia World. It appears that Russian elites, isolated in this information bubble, believed this propaganda. Russia’s media is closed and ideological.

It is easy to foresee Chinese elites believing the same about Taiwan. They, too, are isolated in a closed information space. They, too, refuse to accept that Taiwan increasingly has its own identity and may assume the war would be quick. Putin’s stumble are likely giving them pause.