However, a severe economic downturn isn’t going to cause Putin to change course in Ukraine. Coupled with the conscription of hundreds of thousands of Russian men (which causes additional economic problems), a severe downturn will produce growing discontent. Eventually, that discontent might cause Putin to pull back or face the real possibility of being ousted, but this scenario seems like a long way off.

For now, Putin shows no concern about the living standards of the Russian people. What he’s concerned about is producing arms and supplies for his military.

Here, too, the West’s sanctions are having their intended effect. Putin has acknowledged the problem:

We have to be faster in deciding questions connected to supplying the special military operation and countering restrictions on the economy which, without any exaggeration, are truly unprecedented.

The Post amplifies this point:

Putin’s creation of the coordination council, headed by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, was a sign the Russian president is rattled by the increasing impact of sanctions, economists and analysts said. Putin “is concerned he needs to interfere to make sure supplies will be available,” said Sergei Guriev, provost at France’s Sciences Po. “He is concerned that sanctions have really hit the ability to produce goods.”. . .

Anecdotal evidence reported in the Russian press has pointed to enormous problems supplying Russia’s newly drafted conscripts with equipment. An in-depth October report in Russian daily Kommersant described huge shortages in ammunition and uniform supplies for conscripts, with manufacturers citing difficulties securing the necessary materials due to sanctions.

Sending large numbers of conscripts into battle without properly supplying them is a recipe for disaster, militarily and politically. But not sending them to Ukraine soon likely means more battlefield defeats.