You're learning the wrong lessons from the last election

early two weeks out from the 2022 midterm elections, Democratic ebullience has yet to fade. That is a testament to the general impression going into that election cycle that a Republican wave was a foregone conclusion. But the reprieve voters granted the party in power, to the extent that handing the GOP control of the House and putting an end to the legislative phase of Joe Biden’s first term is a “reprieve,” was a qualified verdict.

Republican candidates benefited from a sizeable shift toward the GOP in much of the Union, with the most pronounced swings in dark blue strongholds like California, New York, and New Jersey. Hispanic voters shifted rightward to the tune of ten points. African-American voters, too, voted Republican in unusual numbers, contributing to the worst Democratic performance among these demographics since the early 1990s. Compared with the 2018 midterms, Asian Americans voted 17 points more Republican. The white suburban women who fueled that year’s backlash against unified Republican governance voted Republican this year by 7 points.