But just because a catastrophe was averted does not mean all is well. Democrats would be sorely mistaken to assume that a durable majority of voters endorsed their agenda in this election — and such a mistake could prove costly in 2024 and beyond.

We know the Democrats risk such a misreading because it is just what they did after the last election. In 2020, Democrats highlighted the repugnant tone and character of the Donald Trump-era G.O.P. while Republicans highlighted radical elements of the Democrats’ agenda — and the public essentially said no to both. Voters narrowly threw out Mr. Trump but gave Democrats the thinnest possible Senate majority while slightly increasing the number of Republicans in the House.

Democrats responded by behaving as though they had won a mandate, trying to advance an ambitious partisan agenda without the majorities to do it — and so generally without success. …

The 2022 election was therefore basically a rerun of 2020. Voters made the same grudging choice — they rejected the Trumpist style and substance of the G.O.P. but without embracing the Democrats — because they were given the same unappetizing menu. Democrats netted one Senate seat at most, in a state where the Republican candidate particularly resembled Mr. Trump, while again losing a small handful of House seats.