Mr. Trump appears to be a significant reason for that showing, based on an analysis of the results by House district.
His preferred candidates underperformed last week, helping Democrats hold the Senate and helping keep the race for House control close. (Republicans, who had been heavy favorites, are expected to prevail narrowly as mail ballots continue to be counted in California.)
Overall, his preferred primary candidates underperformed other G.O.P. candidates by about five percentage points.
A penalty of five points is a big number in today’s polarized era. Five of the last six presidential elections have been decided by a margin less than that. As findings like these are revealed, they may add to the consternation of some Republicans who in recent days have blamed Mr. Trump for the party’s poor performance.
[Cohn’s good at this kind of analysis, and if he’s right, five points is too much to ignore. But it also prompts another question for 2024 — what would be the penalty for Trump getting sidelined? — Ed]
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