The culture war still wins

Last night wasn’t the red wave Republicans began to envision in the last three weeks of the 2022 midterm election cycle. Only after hundreds of thousands of votes were already cast in crucial states like Pennsylvania and Georgia did the Senate ever start to feel like a sure thing in GOP observers’ minds. In reality, it was always going to be a nail-biter, and it was always going to take days—if not a month because of a potential Georgia runoff—to sort out. The House felt well in Republican hands, but dreams of a twenty-plus Republican majority were just that.

Yet, despite a disappointing night for Republicans and their high hopes, it might still be “mission accomplished.” The House will return to Republican control by a slim margin—the New York Times currently estimates that the GOP will hold 224 seats, mirroring the FiveThirtyEight estimate from mid-October before polls started breaking more towards the GOP. The Senate is far from a sure thing, but Republican Adam Laxalt currently has a lead in Nevada, and word on the street is that there might be enough votes left in Arizona to pull both GOP Senate candidate Blake Masters and gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake over the line. And who knows what could happen in a Georgia runoff, though I wouldn’t put money on Walker if control of the Senate comes down to Dec. 6 in the Peach State. Considering the 2022 midterms, a limited GOP success is still possible, if increasingly unlikely.