There’s less to FiveThirtyEight’s question than meets the eye. 2018 was a great year for Democrats all over America. Stacey Abrams lost a very close election to Brian Kemp that year.
In 2022, which is shaping up as a very bad year for Democrats, Abrams likely will lose to Kemp in an election that’s not close. The difference in the election climate this year is probably enough to account for much of the likely shortfall in Abrams’ electoral performance.
The rest of the shortfall might be explained by the following facts about what Abrams and Kemp have done since the 2018 election. Abrams steadfastly denied losing that election — not a great move when your party and its media backers constantly denounce “election deniers.”
Meanwhile, Kemp has governed Georgia in ways approved of by most of the state’s voters. And he gained bipartisan approval by standing up to Donald Trump in the aftermath of the 2020 presidential election. Kwanzi Hall almost certainly had this in mind when he referred to Kemp making tough decisions in unprecedented circumstances and being a man of character.
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