As of this morning, that model says there is a 55 percent chance that Republicans win control of the Senate, and an 85 percent chance that Republicans win control of the House. That’s a perfectly logical sentiment in line with polling, the political and economic environment, gut feeling, etc.

But about three weeks ago, on October 13, the same model showed that Democrats had a 66 percent chance of holding the Senate and a 31 percent chance of holding the House. That’s a dramatic swing. In fact, this past Sunday, the Democrats were still projected to hold the Senate, at 52 percent.

Does it feel as if the political environment changed that much in the past six days, or the past three weeks? … Your mileage may vary, but from where I sit, a lot of people who cover races wanted to believe that Democrats would defy the odds and the historical pattern.

[I’d say that the pundits didn’t want to see it, but more importantly, they didn’t want *you* to see it. — Ed]