It could be a normal midterm election after all.
The 2022 cycle has felt like a roller coaster at times, as we’ve seen glimmers of evidence that Democrats could buck the midterm trend. The Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision overturning abortion rights woke up apathetic Democrats, giving the party demonstrable momentum in the late summer. But Republicans are closing fast, and voters frustrated by a sputtering economy and urban crime are poised to send a message to President Joe Biden and the Democrat-controlled Congress. …
Whichever party wins two of the three toss-up states (Nevada, Georgia and Pennsylvania) will likely control the Senate next year. But it could take a Dec. 6 runoff in Georgia before that is ultimately decided.
Republicans could exceed all expectations if polling underestimates support for GOP candidates once again, or if the lack of polling in the final days masks a late surge fueled by undecided voters focused on the economy.
[Or if that “surge” existed all along. — Ed]
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