When Republicans likely take control of the House and Senate, nobody should be surprised: Historically — and by the numbers — this is the result that everyone should have expected long ago. In September, I wrote that the benchmark of success for Republicans should be 230-235 House seats and 52 Senate seats. That benchmark is based on historic performance by the party that does not hold the presidency and recent election results.
As Election Day approaches, there is nothing that contraindicates that prediction.
President Biden is unpopular, and large majorities think the country is on the wrong track.
Republicans, in fact, are likely to get to the upper end of expectations with 235-240 House seats and 53-54 Senate seats. Democrats are being overwhelmed by the big issues, sweeping away Republicans’ problems of uneven, inexperienced candidates, Trump and abortion.
[My personal over/unders: 245 in the House and 52 in the Senate. — Ed]
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