Five Toss-ups remain: open, Republican-held Arizona; open, Democratic-held Oregon; and the second-term bids by Govs. Laura Kelly (D-KS), Steve Sisolak (D-NV), and Tony Evers (D-WI). All of these races, based on both private and public polling, remain close, although it’s not hard to imagine Republicans doing quite well in those races, given the broader national environment and our understanding of the dynamics shaping the individual races. As per Crystal Ball tradition, we will push all of these Toss-ups to a “Leans” rating sometime between now and Election Eve.
We are comfortable, however, upgrading the ratings for a couple of high-profile Republican incumbents in the Sun Belt.
Although they ultimately broke towards different parties, Florida and Georgia were a couple of the closer states in the 2020 presidential election. Next week, we are expecting their results to be more decisive — and the same party should take both.
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