I’ve spent a lot of time reading up on the early vote and the trends for early voting. Here are a few things you should note. The TL;DR version is this: Democrats are not meeting key metrics nationwide for early voting and Republicans are surpassing metrics, which suggests the doom for Democrats is real. …
Third, while Democrats tend to vote early, Republicans tend to surge in the last week of early voting. So a wide margin for Democrats during early voting can be offset by Republicans surging at the end and then showing up on election day. Where things become useful is finding patterns of Democrats or Republicans not building up early voting numbers to offset Election Day numbers.
That said, I’ve looked at a lot of early voting in the country, and if I were a Democrat, I’d be freaking out right about now. Here’s what’s happening and why Democrats should be freaked out.
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