Midterms looking good for the GOP -- and the polls may still be underestimating it

Economic issues overshadow abortion rights. Democrats had hoped that the Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade in June would lead to a strong voter backlash. That could happen, but polls increasingly indicate that economic issues will drive voters’ decisions. A new Times/Siena College poll, for example, found that the economy and inflation were the only issues that more than 10% of likely voters cited as the most important issue facing the nation. The same poll found that likely voters favor Republican congressional candidates over Democrats 49% to 45%.

Polls may underestimate Republican support. The pollsters I’ve worked with over the years are smart professionals who take their craft seriously. They want to get the numbers right – and have strong financial incentives to do so. Even so, pollsters badly undercounted Republican voters ahead of the 2016 and 2020 elections, and there’s reason to think it could happen again this year. Some media outlets such as Real Clear Politics are trying to adjust for a possible undercount of Republican voters this year based on previous election results. That’s tricky at best. But there is a common perception that the polls are inaccurate, and not in Democrats’ favor.

[The bit about RCP is premature. Their project is for future election cycles based on results in this cycle, I believe, and may be more about rating pollsters rather than a new “unskew the polls” effort. — Ed]