With less than three weeks to go before the midterms, the GOP appears to be gaining momentum, as inflation and the economy dominate voters’ concerns. And while the Senate outlook still remains plausibly optimistic for Democrats, the House presents a darker picture. Dave Wasserman, House editor for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, has been closely tracking the relatively small number of competitive races, and he sees Republican momentum. I spoke with Wasserman, whose Twitter catchphrase “I’ve seen enough” signals a race’s conclusion for many political junkies, about the forbidding landscape for Democrats, why even big names like Katie Porter and Sean Patrick Maloney may be in trouble, and the muddled state of political polling.
On the heels of some Democratic strength last month, is this shaping up as a more standard midterm, where the opposition party does well after all?
I think Nate Silver, my friend and fellow prognosticator, asked the right question over the summer when he wondered whether this would be an asterisk election. Today, we’re somewhere between an asterisk year, in which there’s a minimal wave, and a classic midterm election, where Republicans do quite well. I think this is probably a Category 2 or 3 hurricane headed Democrats’ way, just not a Category 4 or 5.
(via Memeorandum)
[Wasserman’s a pretty sharp analyst, but I’d guess it’s going to be a Cat 4 at least. It just may look a bit more mild since the GOP already has 212 House seats, but a pickup of over 30 would give them a massive majority. — Ed]
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