Nuclear chicken is overrated (not a recipe)

To understand the conventional thinking as to why Putin will not use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, you need only ask: why should he?

Biden argues that Putin is irrational, a madman of sorts, pressed into a corner facing imminent defeat in Ukraine—and, with that, the likelihood of regime change.

But nothing could be further from the truth. Putin is not facing “defeat” in the Ukraine, as territory trades hands, and can retreat to stable pre-invasion lines in the Donbas and elsewhere with little more than egg on his face—nothing close to defeat. If you’re interested in what defeat looks like, see Kabul 1989 or 2021.

As for regime change, Putin owes nothing to whatever Russian public opinion exists around him, and his pals in power, the so-called oligarchs, have (minus a yacht or two) plundered mightily off sanctions, which have driven up prices for Russian energy exports.