It seems like Wisconsin elections are always pretty close these days, and here are two more following that trend. The Senate race has incumbent Republican Sen. Ron Johnson running just one point ahead of Democrat Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes in a toss-up contest, and the governor’s race is currently even between incumbent Democrat Gov. Tony Evers and Republican Tim Michels. …
Republicans appear to have a turnout advantage. They are four points more likely than Democrats to say they’re definitely voting this year, and Johnson supporters are ten points more likely than Barnes backers to say they’re very enthusiastic about voting.
In some ways, these midterms are a referendum on President Joe Biden. On that note, more are casting their Senate votes to oppose him than support him, and Johnson is easily winning those voters in Wisconsin.
The power of incumbency may also be helping Johnson. Most of his backers call his Senate record a major factor in their vote, plus, Republicans like him personally. That’s different than the dynamic in other battleground states where Republicans are not incumbents. In Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona, Republicans are voting more out of opposition to Democrats than affinity for their own nominee.
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