No nuclear war for Ukraine

The Russian Federation has begun to look a bit like the Titanic. Impressively presented and expensively made, Vladimir Putin’s revived Russian military enjoyed an outsize reputation. Nervous neighbors imagined Moscow launching a modern blitzkrieg, conquering much of Europe and establishing a new Russian Empire.

Then came Putin’s February invasion of Ukraine. Seven months after an attack that was supposed to seize Kiev and oust the Zelensky government in days, the campaign is moving in reverse, with a dramatic counteroffensive from Ukraine. Even as Putin headlined a gaudy Kremlin event celebrating the annexation of four Ukrainian oblasts, Ukraine’s military was liberating more territory supposedly under Moscow’s control. Putin looked ridiculous rather than fearsome and his government’s “partial mobilization” appeared to show the regime’s desperation, not determination.

The Russian state is still capable of doing enormous harm. By one estimate, Moscow can continue the war for another two or three years without suffering budget distress. And Russia’s nuclear stockpile gives substance to Putin’s not so veiled threats to use nukes. Exactly for what purpose and in what way is not so clear. Most obviously, Moscow desires to keep NATO, meaning the U.S., out of the war. Russia relies on nuclear weapons to help make up for its conventional inferiority. Reminding Washington of that fact might help dissuade the Biden administration from directly coming to Ukraine’s defense.