Rural voters, lately a dependable bedrock of GOP support, have been staying home from the polls – an alarming trend for Republicans hoping to pick up seats in the upcoming midterm election.

The trend is already hindering Republicans. “Rep. Pat Ryan prevailed in a close race over his Republican opponent in an August special election in upstate New York,” POLITICO reported, “in part because rural voters came out to the polls at lower rates than voters in more populated places in his bellwether congressional district.”

The turning point in rural voters’s motivation appears to be the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision, which overturned Roe v Wade. “A POLITICO analysis of turnout data before and after Roe v. Wade was struck down in June shows that voters in rural counties were less motivated to cast ballots than those in more Democratic-leaning suburbs and cities after the Supreme Court decision.”