When we shifted our Pennsylvania Senate rating to Lean Democrat about six weeks ago, we included this key caveat — Republican spending against Democratic nominee John Fetterman had yet to ramp up, and that while Republican Mehmet Oz still has a hefty problem with his own favorables, that “it’s not out of the question that this could move back [to Toss Up] as the election nears.”

Now, with five weeks until Election Day, that’s exactly where we find this race. In conversations with several GOP strategists and lawmakers — who a month and a half ago had begun to put the Keystone State in the loss column — this has emerged as a margin-of-error race that they once again see winnable. Republicans and Democrats alike admit the race has tightened and that Pennsylvania could be the tipping point state for the Senate majority. …

Fetterman’s vote share has decreased — and as we saw in polls in 2020, for Democrats especially, it’s been more instructive to look at that number as a possible ceiling. A Suffolk University/USA Today poll out today, for example, shows Fetterman ahead of Oz by six points (46%-40%)” compared to “several polls in late August and early September showed Fetterman above or hovering just below 50 percent,” showing “a clear downward trend.”