If you are a Democrat and visit Nate Silver’s 538 site, you believe the election is in the bag because good old N8 Ag gives Democrats a 71% of keeping the Senate and a 32% chance of keeping the House.

In fact, 538 said Republicans could lose up to 30 seats in the House and 7 in the Senate in a feat that defies all logic and 200+ years of congressional history.

If you are a Republican and visit the Real Clear Politics site, you believe the Senate election is in the bag because RCP says Republicans will keep all the seats they now have and pick up Georgia and Nevada.

Furthermore, RCP said Republicans already have gained the six House seats they need for a majority and could add up to 32 more seats. Logic and history say a 6 to 38 seat-gain is lowballing it for the party out of power. …

So, who is right?