Russia was supposed to breeze over Ukraine, taking Kyiv “within days, perhaps forcing a Ukrainian capitulation in less than a week.” That didn’t happen of course; the conflict has been ebbing and flowing for several months with no resolution in sight. Ukrainian forces, effective at conducting asymmetrical warfare, have thwarted Russian forces from achieving their objectives, one after another.

“Russia failed to establish air superiority, capture Kyiv, or take any major cities in northern Ukraine; and the Donbas campaign is locked in a virtual stalemate,” Tyson Wetzel, the 7th Air Force’s Deputy Director for Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance, wrote for the Atlantic Council. Russia was supposed to establish air superiority within the first 72 hours of the conflict, allowing their ground forces to operate with air support. Instead, “Russian forces have failed to control the skies, and have suffered huge aircraft losses that have hindered their air support for the ground invasion.”

Wetzel argues that Russian failures are not to be blamed entirely for the outcome of the air war in Ukraine; rather, attribution must also be paid to Ukrainian successes.