New Parents Act: Robbing Peter's retirement to pay Peter's time off is a bad strategy

Unfortunately, the idea that the US government can provide generous new benefits to Americans today while successfully financing this spending decades down the road is implausible, not least because the plan relies on a host of unrealistic assumptions. In addition, the plan fails to account for political constraints that virtually guarantee the failure of its principal financing mechanism. …

First, the claim that individuals can spend some of their future Social Security benefits today in exchange for forgoing those benefits tomorrow is not well-founded. This intertemporal exchange cannot really work because, contrary to the popular narrative about Social Security, there is no actual pot of money from which today’s young people can draw—only promises of future benefits.

Second, it is bad to set multiple retirement ages for different Social Security participants on the basis of their choices regarding parental leave-taking. Consider that Social Security’s coming insolvency means the program’s retirement age will almost certainly need to be raised, so it is impossible for parents to fully consider a tradeoff between current and future benefits. Yet the New Parents Act is premised on the unrealistic assumption that the retirement age, even decades from now, will remain unchanged. Until a solution to Social Security’s insolvency is legislated, no participant can know how much the retirement age will be raised, how much the payroll tax may increase, or how much benefits may be cut. Consequently, today’s parents don’t have the information to know whether they should take the deal offered in the New Parents Act. Some who delay their retirement until age 68 might never have taken the deal had they known it would mean delaying their retirement until, say, age 69 or 70, which might be required if Congress raises the general retirement age. The public outcry caused by this apparent bait and switch would make it even less likely that the offset can ever be fully enforced.

Finally, the New Parents Act would reverse the traditional order of Social Security contributions and benefits.