Ukraine’s counteroffensive could work. The defeatists won’t admit it.

When Russian forces finally managed to seize two important eastern cities by early July after months of struggling in their war with Ukraine, the defeatists — from think tank analysts and academics to former foreign policy hands to allegedly anti-imperialist leftists — again insisted that Ukraine had no hope of prevailing against Russia’s superior might. In advance of the new operation this week, the doubt continued. A typical argument is that it would take a “miracle” for Ukraine to succeed.

Broadly, this cohort wants Washington to withhold aid to pressure Kyiv to sue for peace and concede Ukrainian land seized by Russia rather than continue to resist. Give Russian President Vladimir Putin an excuse to declare victory, they claim, and he’ll take the opportunity to negotiate a peace agreement and bow out with his pride intact…

In fact, Russia’s own military appears more pessimistic about its capabilities than the Ukraine defeatists. Russian operations in eastern Ukraine have decreased markedly in energy since July as Moscow has shifted forces to southern Ukraine in expectation of a Kherson counteroffensive. That’s because both sides can see Russia’s vulnerability in this sector and how that gives Ukraine a credible shot at liberating Kherson.