To many Republican voters, the Mar-a-Lago gambit reeks of a political put-up job. And it follows in the pattern of past investigations of Trump: a lot of heavy breathing and rumors of serious charges to come with most of the evidence shielded from public view.
But ahead of this November, or November 2024, is this really what Republicans want to be talking about? Trump may dodge charges, but he was cavalier enough with classified documents — or at least his dealing with the National Archives — to get into this predicament.
Suburban voters who Republicans were winning back as recently as last year’s Virginia gubernatorial election may once again drift out of the GOP coalition, limiting pickup opportunities this fall and the path to an Electoral College majority two years later.
Imagine a world without Trump. The focus would be where Democrats least want it — on their and Biden’s performance in office. It won’t be on rehashing past controversies rather than debating current events.
Trump also negates two of the biggest advantages Republicans could carry into 2024: age (he will be 78 to Biden’s 81) and enthusiasm (all the excitement he generates on the right is equaled or exceeded by outrage on the center and left).
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