The Democratic momentum mirage

What about the generic ballot? It’s not a given that Dobbs caused the generic ballot to tighten. The ruling was handed down in June and the alleged effect didn’t materialize for a month. Thus, the recent Democratic “surge” may well be nothing more than what Amy Walters of the Cook Political Report suggests is a “summer reassessment of midterm assumptions.” At the time of this writing, RealClearPolitics shows the Republicans with a slight advantage (0.8) and FiveThirtyEight shows the Democrats with a similarly unimpressive advantage (0.5).

Unfortunately for the Democrats, however, the most reliable tool for predicting midterm outcomes isn’t the generic ballot. As Sean Trende wrote earlier this year in an article for the American Enterprise Institute, “In our increasingly polarized and nationalized politics, the single most determinative factor in midterm outcomes is the president’s job approval.” At the time of this writing, the RealClearPolitics average shows President Joe Biden with a dismal 41.9 approval rating. As Gallup pointed out during the last midterm cycle, this means disaster…